arkadaşlar selam yarın final sınavı yerine geçicek bir ödevim var (1 saat önce haberim oldu,hoca mail atmış).Principles of Business Forecasting (işletme tahminleri) diye bir ders.6 tane soru vermiş bu ders konusunda ve cevaplamamızı istiyor, sorular hakkında bilgisi olan yardımcı olabilirmi acaba ?
sorular: 1. Under what conditions would you choose to use simple exponential smoothing, Holt’s exponential smoothing, and Winters’ exponential smoothing? Are these the only smoothing models possible to construct? If there are other possible models, suggest one that might be useful.
2. Exponential smoothing is meant to be used with time series data when the data are made up of some or all of the basic components of average, trend, seasonality, and error. If the data series only fluctuates about an average with no trend and no seasonality, which form of smoothing would you enjoy? If the data include all of these components, which form of smoothing would you employ? How should the correct smoothing factors be chosen?
3. What are the steps that should be used in evaluating regression models? Write each step in the order it should be evaluated, and following each one write a sentence or two in your own words to explain its importance.
4. In evaluating regression models, we have tested a hypothesis to determine whether the slop term is significantly different from zero. Why do we test this hypothesis? Why do we not test the comparable hypothesis for the intercept?
5. Explain what dummy variables are and how they can be used to account for seasonality. Give an example of how you might use dummy variables to measure seasonality for a good or service of your choice. Explain the signs you would expect on each. Assume that you are working with quarterly data.
6. using your own words, write a description of each of the four components of the classic time series decomposition technique. Avoid using mathematical relationships and technical jargon as much as possible so that your explanations can be understod by almost anyone.
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